Game 44 - Multi-inning Muñoz
Muñoz is helping the Mariners bank early wins
Andrés Muñoz is holding this thing together.
Muñoz entered the eighth inning on Wednesday with runners on second and third, one out, and the Mariners clinging to a 3-1 lead. He got the first batter to hit a weird bloop-groundout that scored a run. He then struck out the next batter to end the inning with the lead intact.
The Mariners scored in the bottom of the inning to make it 4-2 before sending Muñoz back out to finish the job. Sal Perez doubled to leadoff the ninth. Michael Massey flew out to left. Hunter Renfroe hit a chopper to third and Luis Urías made a nice running pick but threw wide of first to put runners on first and third with one out.
Muñoz then struck out MJ Melendez on four pitches. And after falling behind Freddy Fermin, he battled back to blow him away with a 99-mph fastball.
Game.
It was the seventh time this year Muñoz has thrown multiple innings. Last year, he did so only four times. In 2022, he threw in multiple innings nine times—all of which came after June 8.
It’s a split decision
The Mariners bullpen has frequently put late leads in peril.
The Mariners FIP in the eighth inning is 4.17, which ranks 25th in MLB. Their FIP in all innings is 3.47, which ranks fourth. In fact, few teams in history have such a severe split. The Mariners tOPS+ against in the eighth inning is a whopping 137—the highest tOPS+ for any pitching staff in the eighth inning since 1975. If we look at the leverage index, the Mariners have a 145 tOPS+ against in high leverage situations, which is the second worst ever behind only the 1915 St. Louis Browns.
To be clear, tOPS+ is more of a “fun” stat. It compares performance on a split relative to team or player performance overall. So one way you could look at it is the Mariners pitching staff has been so unbelievably good overall that simply being below average in one split is historic. We’re also only about a quarter through the season, and these splits average out over time—the Mariners will likely improve in the eighth, or get worse in other innings. And tOPS+ is also based on OPS, which isn’t a great metric for describing pitcher performance.
But what this illustrates is the Mariners haven’t maintained their dominance between the starting pitcher and Muñoz in the ninth. The eighth inning is a relative weak spot.
The solution for Scott Servais has been to turn to Muñoz for multiple innings when things get dicey. It’s worked every time.
5/15 - Mariners up two, Voth gets into trouble, Muñoz allows one inherited runner to score, Muñoz scoreless ninth, Mariners win
5/13 - Mariners up four, Stanek gives up two, Muñoz escapes jam, Muñoz scoreless ninth, Mariners win
5/5 - Game tied, Stanek gets into trouble, Muñoz escapes jam, Muñoz scoreless ninth, Mariners win
4/30 - Mariners up three, Stanek gives up one, Muñoz allows one inherited runner to score, Muñoz scoreless ninth, Mariners win
4/16 - Mariners down two, Gilbert gets into trouble, Muñoz escapes jam, Muñoz scoreless eighth, Mariners lose by two
4/10 - Game tied, Gilbert gets into trouble, Muñoz escapes jam, Muñoz scoreless ninth, Mariners win in extras
3/29 - Mariners up one, Stanek gets into trouble, Muñoz escapes jam, Muñoz scoreless ninth, Mariners win
The Mariners did not give up a lead once when bringing in Muñoz for multiple innings. They won each time except when they were already behind.
Muñoz has been fantastic—maybe even better—in his multi-inning appearances. In those outings, Muñoz has a 43% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate, and a nearly 50% whiff rate. He hasn’t allowed a single run of his own and has only allowed two of 12 inherited runners to score. In standard appearances, Muñoz has a 24% strikeout rate, 12% walk rate, and 30% whiff rate.
Reduced workload
Everyone is hyperaware of the pitcher-injury specter.
It’s unknown what directly causes pitcher injuries, but it’s assumed that each pitch carries some amount of risk. Many (including myself) are uneasy watching Muñoz throw multiple innings with an elevated pitch count, especially at max effort the whole time.
“I just try to go there and do my best every time, every pitch [with] 100% effort, and it’s working,” Muñoz said after Wednesday’s game.
But it doesn’t actually seem like Muñoz workload has increased in 2024.
In his multi-inning appearances, Muñoz has thrown 20, 24, 24, 27, 11, 17, and 33 pitches. He averages about 22 pitches per multi-inning appearance, and about 13 per standard appearance—nine more on average. Now, maybe there’s some additional risk to him concentrating that many max effort pitches in one day. But is that any more risk than throwing max effort on consecutive days? Last year, Muñoz threw on back-to-back days 11 times; he’s done so only twice this year.
The graph below is a rolling sum of pitches thrown over 30 day periods. Even with the multi-inning appearances, Muñoz is nowhere near the workload he was at in 2023, or even 2022.
At some point, there’s a risk you have to accept with your pitchers. Muñoz could get hurt on the first pitch of a normal outing, or in the bullpen warming up, or while brushing his teeth in the morning. It sucks, but it happens.
Banking wins
And while the Mariners want a healthy and well-rested Muñoz for the final stretch, it won’t really matter how healthy he is if they’re out of the race because they’ve blown several close leads.
The Mariners talked before the season about the importance of winning games early. If they have a chance to win a game, they want to take it, regardless of the month. Injuries and slumps and fatigue can be figured out. Losses are forever.
Again, just looking at the occasions where the Mariners turned to Muñoz for multiple innings, it’s possible they’re below .500 right now had they not gone to him. Instead, they banked six wins that weren’t otherwise guaranteed.
If the Mariners are going to be competitive all year, they’ll have to find another reliable high leverage option out of the bullpen. They’ll also have to score more runs so every lead isn’t in jeopardy when a reliever gives up a hit or two.
But until then, the Mariners should continue to use Muñoz when he’s needed most.
####